Polynesians’ confidence in the economy is falling

According to a note prepared jointly by ISPF, AFD and IEOM, the confidence of Polynesian households fell in the 3rd quarter of 2022. The majority of those surveyed believe that the country’s economic situation will deteriorate, given the increase in prices.



The current situation has an impact on the level of confidence of the Polynesians. The Household Confidence Index (HCI) fell slightly, after an increase observed between Q3 2021 and Q1 2022, according to a survey conducted between August and September 2022 among households residing in the Windward Islands .

More than 80% of households in the Windward Islands believe that the economic situation in Fenua has deteriorated in the last six months. Households remain mostly bearish for the next six months. They are more numerous than before for fear of a deterioration of the labor market.

CEROM note – October 2022

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Inflation, well in mind

Today, inflation is very present in the lives of Polynesians. Faced with rising prices for food, real estate, and building materials, 78% of households believe prices have increased. Inflation that reached a record level of +7% between September 2021 and September 2022. While inflation is expected to last for many more months, households have few illusions: they anticipate continued price increases over the next year. Despite everything, many of them maintain their level of consumption.


Despite inflation, many of them maintain their level of consumption.



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If a third of households feel a deterioration in finances, most expect to keep their consumption at the current level in the next six months. They are significantly less likely than before to consider cutting back on major purchases, especially in the area of ​​travel.

CEROM note – October 2022

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The study was conducted in the form of a telephone questionnaire from August 10 to September 6, 2022, in French and/or Tahitian. It was carried out among more than 800 representative households of the Windward Islands according to the methodology of crossed quotas of people of
household reference, according to their area of ​​residence, sex, age group, socio-professional category, with a control variable on the size of the household. To ensure its consistency over time, the sample is partially renewed in each survey. Sentiment balances are calculated by taking the difference between the percentages of positive and negative responses (neutral responses are not included in the calculation).
The confidence indicator summarizes the opinion of households about the economic situation. It is obtained from the following opinion balances: past and future personal financial situation, past and future economic situation of the country, future labor market, forecasts of important purchases.

Consumption

Sample of the survey carried out



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