first round lessons

Three experienced candidates stand out widely this Sunday night with double-digit scores according to estimates, notably those of Ipsos Sopra Steria for Radio France / France Television / France 24 / Les Chaines Parlementaires and Le Parisien: Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Eight candidates did not reach the 5% vote mark. For the first time in twenty years, the outgoing president has won the first round and, for the first time in more than forty years, the French have qualified in the second round for the same duel as in the previous presidential election. Finally, this is the third time that the extreme right has reached the second round of a presidential election in France, after the father of Marine Le Pen, former head of the National Front, in 2002, and then herself, in 2017.

Here you will find the results in real time.

Macron largely in the lead, now supported by Pécresse, Hidalgo, Jadot and Roussel

true Performance, the outgoing presidential candidate registers a higher score than in 2017, with almost five points ahead of its competitor: 27.6% according to Ipsos. The flag effect produced by the war in Ukraine would have remained largely in favor of Emmanuel Macron, with perhaps also a useful vote in the first round. The last to speak from campaign headquarters about him, he landed Sunday night as the starter of a “strong europe“he claimed to defend the”unique purchasing power project“, a theme that has emerged in recent weeks, calls for founding beyond the “differences” “a great political movement of unity and action“and says want”reach anyone who wants to work for France“.

Anne Hidalgo, then Valérie Pécresse, Yannick Jadot and Fabien Roussel quickly called to vote for him on April 24. The question of vote reservations will be fundamental for whom many considered too right-wing during his mandate. Although, according to the first polls carried out on Sunday, he would win Marine Le Pen in the second round, with a score of between 54% and 51% compared to 46%-49% for the National Grouping candidate.

We may finally see Emmanuel Macron in the campaign. We can expect an extremely violent muscular campaign between two towers on both sides.” Christine Ockrent estimated on our antenna. The former Socialist Minister of Culture Aurélie Filippetti also considered on our microphone that “There was little enthusiasm for this election because, basically, for most people the stakes were low. And the argument that probably has the most impact, for both parties, is the useful vote.. The first round became the second round. We eliminate so as not to find ourselves in a second round scenario that we would not like. The voter has become a strategist.“For journalist Gérard Courtois, an ‘everything but Le Pen’ is emerging in the face of ‘everything but Macron'”.a kind of referendum against the incumbent and a bombardment against the extreme right“. The former editorial director of Le Monde who points out the failure on the merits of the candidate for president that he had promised on the night of his victory in 2017: “I will do everything for the next five years so that they no longer have a reason to vote for the extremes.”

Marine Le Pen supported by Eric Zemmour

Marina LePen it appears in 23%, again according to Ipsos. It is doing better than five years ago thanks to a modest, skillful, grassroots campaign, as close as possible to the voters, for a long time “a 1995 Chirac campaign”, according to Gérard Courtois, and thanks to a more protective image, softened. “He played the emotional card admirably and is well placed on the important element of proximity, of understanding people’s lives, and not just with the working classes,” explains Ipsos’ Yves Bardon. Y “like Jacques Chirac in 1995 against Balladur, Marine Le Pen played the victim with the betrayals, the stabbings in the back, the executives who leave her, who leave her alone and she had to understand alone against the French“, adds our ticket agent Frédéric Says.

Marine Le Pen could benefit notably from the vote transfers of Éric Zemmour, credited with 7.2%, and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, with 2.1%. eric zemour that served him with his provocations, his excesses, for example on the Ukrainian refugees, called to vote for her, despite their lively campaign exchanges and their tensions over the numerous departures of the RN to the Reconquest. And Nicolas Dupont-Aignan called “the French will do everything to block Macron“. Marine Le Pen said this Sunday night that she wanted “suture fractures“, in line with his social discourse and his very promising arguments in favor of purchasing power.

In 2017, Emmanuel Macron obtained 24.01% of the votes in the first round and Marine Le Pen 21.30%.

For his third presidential campaign, with 22.2% and a ‘comeback’ in the afternoon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon He did better than in 2017 with a very strong push in the last few days, but without qualifying for the second round. The leader of the Insoumis, very inventive on social networks, has clearly managed to take the leadership of the left and capture the green vote with his radical proposals on this issue. But some think that building a left-wing union after 2017 would have allowed it not to once again be stuck in the middle of the ford. “We must not give a single voice to Madame Le PenHe said from his campaign headquarters that he now has to target an opposition group strengthened thanks to the upcoming legislative elections.The legislative elections will in fact be the third round of this presidential election. And there we will see the politics of yesteryear resume their rightsChristine Ockrent has also pointed out.

Double requiem for historical government parties

The Republicans and the Socialist Party posted historically low scores with a total of less than 7 points! “is a political failure“and the perception that the French have of it, considers Stéphane Robert, the head of our political service.

Valerie Pecresse dips below the symbolic bar of 5% of the votes with 4.8%. “The verdict of the people of France is binding on us.“, declared in particular the president of the Ile-de-France region in front of only fifty activists. This stinging failure will surely lead to the breakup of the party in power for decades. And the reimbursement of his campaign expenses by the El status could also be markedly reduced, causing significant financial hardship.”This is a historic defeat for the Republican right. We must draw all the consequences“, released Éric Ciotti, unlucky finalist of the LR primaries and who trusted that he would not vote for Emmanuel Macron.

For the journalist Gérard Courtois, “The candidate of this party found herself, like this same party for five years, trapped in a vice between, on the one hand, the extreme right, which is also ‘reinforced’ by Éric Zemmour, who intended precisely to blow up the borders, and Emmanuel Macron . in the other one. The right did not know how to rethink its place, its project, to try to loosen this vice.”

With 1.7% voices, Anna Hidalgo points to the depth of the results, behind Fabien Roussel’s Communist Party, with 2.3%, and only ahead of Philippe Poutou (0.7%) and Nathalie Arthaud (0.6%). The mayor of Paris fares worse than former socialist Benoît Hamon in 2017 (6.36%), who had already achieved a historically low score. “I think the Socialist Party is dead,” said Aurélie Filippetti during our election night. “He was already dead before this election, it is not the fact of Anne Hidalgo. This party has been basically dead since 2017.“. To add: “Now the challenge for the left will be what can be rebuilt, on what basis, and by whom.“.

The first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, launched this Sunday night “a solemn call to the forces of the left and environmentalists, to the social forces, to the citizens willing to commit themselves to build together for the legislative elections a pact for social and ecological justice“. And in a separate press release, several PS executives, including Johanna Rolland, Mayor of Nantes, Matthieu Klein, Mayor of Nancy, or Michaël Delafosse, Mayor of Montpellier, also called for “the union of leftist forces and environmentalists“.

Below 5%, Yannick Jadot asks for donations

Another, albeit minor, disappointment for Yannick Jadot, who narrowly missed out on 5% (4.7%) despite significant ecological issues. He does better than the last green candidate, Eva Joly in 2012 (2.31%), but less than Noël Mamère in 2002 (5.25%), who retains the highest “green” score in a presidential election.

Yannick Jadot and Julien Bayou, president of Europe Ecology the Greens, launched a call for donations to reimburse their campaign and continue their fight against this marker.

For Stéphane Robert, Christine Ockrent and Yves Bardon, from Ipsos, environmentalists pay in particular for an excess of dogmatism at the time of the war in Ukraine and energy issues (gas, prices at petrol stations) that take over, accentuating the short-term concerns about purchasing power.

Strong abstention but not record

According to estimates from the survey institutes, abstention would be 4 to 6 points higher than in 2017, between 24% and 26.5%. With the number of registered voters increasing by more than a million between the two votes. But the historical minimum for a presidential election -28.4% in 2002- has not been surpassed. And we are also very far from the 66.72% of voters who abstained in the first round of the regional elections in June 2021. A record for all the polls combined but in a very different context.

Gérard Courtois recalled in our airwaves the structural causes, “for more than twenty years“: “mistrust of those in power, whoever they are, the feeling that they do not understand the problems of the French, the feeling that their policies are ineffective and, above all, the feeling that French democracy is not working properly“. Added to this are the circumstantial causes: “the health crisis that has confined political life for two years, the war in Ukraine that has greatly overshadowed the campaign. All this has caused a mixture of fatigue, concern, perceptible uncertainty in recent weeksThe former editorial director of Le Monde to finally mention circumstantial causes: “seven candidates of the twelve were already present last time, some are candidates for the third time and of the five ‘new’ candidates, four did not burst the screen and the one who at one point seemed to be able to shake the game, Éric Zemmour, played all his cards in the fall and found himself very helpless when it came to the heart of the campaign“.

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